The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change

Ciceu, A. and Bălăcenoiu, F. and de, Groot M. and Chakraborty, D. and Avtzis, D. and Barta, M. and Blaser, S. and Bracalini, M. and Castagneyrol, B. and Chernova, U.A. and Çota, E. and Csóka, György and Dautbasic, M. and Glavendekic, M. and Gninenko, Y.I. and Hoch, G. and Hradil, K. and Husemann, M. and Meshkova, V. and Mujezinovic, O. and Mutun, S. and Panzavolta, T. and Paulin, Márton József and Riba-Flinch, J.M. and Simov, N. and Sotirovski, K. and Vasilciuc, S. and Zúbrik, M. and Schueler, S. (2024) The ongoing range expansion of the invasive oak lace bug across Europe: current occurrence and potential distribution under climate change. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT, 949. ISSN 0048-9697

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Abstract

In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021–2040, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak (Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape. © 2024 The Authors

Tudományterület / tudományág

agricultural sciences > forestry and wildlife management

Faculty

Not relevant

Institution

Soproni Egyetem

Item Type:	Article
SWORD Depositor:	Teszt Sword
Depositing User:	Csaba Horváth
Identification Number:	MTMT:35177980
Date Deposited:	28 Aug 2024 10:38
Last Modified:	28 Aug 2024 10:38
URI:	http://publicatio.uni-sopron.hu/id/eprint/3259

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