Modeling climate-change effects with provenance test data

Mátyás, Csaba (1994) Modeling climate-change effects with provenance test data. TREE PHYSIOLOGY, 14. pp. 797-804. ISSN 0829-318X

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Abstract

Provenance tests of forest trees, which were originally intended to identify suitable seed sources for planting at different locations, provide valuable data for assessing the response of populations to environmental change. Environmental differences between the location of origin and the planting (test) site have been calculated by principal component analysis and termed ecological distance. Based on ecological distance values, the growth response of tree populations can be modeled as a function of the test site macroclimate. These models can then be used to predict the effects of climatic change on growth and survival. The growth response model predicts that increasing annual mean temperatures will result in accelerated growth if precipitation is sufficient, but only within the limits characteristic of the species. At the southern limits of distribution, growth and competitive ability of the species will decline, leading to successional changes.

Tudományterület / tudományág

agricultural sciences > forestry and wildlife management

Faculty

Not relevant

Institution

Nyugat-Magyarországi Egyetem

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	FELTÖLTŐ: Tompáné Székely Zsófia - tzsofi@emk.nyme.hu
SWORD Depositor:	Teszt Sword
Depositing User:	Zsófia Tompa
Identification Number:	MTMT:101179
Date Deposited:	11 May 2016 20:11
Last Modified:	11 May 2016 20:11
URI:	http://publicatio.uni-sopron.hu/id/eprint/680

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